What’s in store for the 2008 Art Market?
With less than a month to go until the major spring auctions of Impressionist, Modern and Contemporary art, Sothebys and Christies are starting to roll out their catalogues. Who’s getting nervous? The market found a way to stay strong in 2007 even though the subprime lending mess began to weigh down the US economy resulting in the unraveling of brokerages and the weakening of the dollar. Will the market stay strong in 2008? Looking at the auction line up the inventory seems to indicate that 2008 has the potential to hold overall sales volume, but increase price per lot.
Looking at Sotheby’s Impressionist and Modern Evening sale scheduled for May 7, the sales volume at the high estimate is expected to essentially match last year’s Impressionist and Modern Art evening sale. But there are fewer lots available (53 this year compared to 61 last year). But the success of this year’s sale really hinges on one oil painting, Study for Woman in Blue, by Fernand Leger estimated at $35,000,000-$45,000,000. To put it in perspective, the highest price realized in 2007 was $25,520,000 (including buyers premium) for Paul Cezanne’s Still Life with Green Melon (estimated at $14,000,000 - $18,000,000).
Will the Leger be able to carry the session? Seems like there is a lot riding on it especially in the face of increasing skepticism about the strength of the economy. A lot of eyes will be on Sotheby’s on May 7.
Here is an overview of Sotheby’s sale. Images of the works can be found on their site. Christies has not released their Impressionist and Modern evening sale details on their website. The Christies auction will take place on May 6 and will likely set the stage for the Sotheby’s sale.
| Artist | Works | Low Estimate | High Estimate |
| Fernand Léger | 3 | $ 50,000,000 | $ 67,000,000 |
| PABLO PICASSO | 6 | $ 36,000,000 | $ 52,500,000 |
| Alberto Giacometti | 6 | $ 25,300,000 | $ 37,700,000 |
| Edvard Munch | 1 | $ 24,000,000 | $ 28,000,000 |
| Paul Signac | 2 | $ 9,000,000 | $ 13,000,000 |
| Edgar Degas | 2 | $ 7,500,000 | $ 9,700,000 |
| MARC CHAGALL | 4 | $ 7,400,000 | $ 10,400,000 |
| Joan Miró | 3 | $ 7,300,000 | $ 9,700,000 |
| Paul Cézanne | 1 | $ 6,000,000 | $ 8,000,000 |
| René Magritte | 3 | $ 5,200,000 | $ 7,100,000 |
| Alfred Sisley | 2 | $ 4,250,000 | $ 6,750,000 |
| Kees van Dongen | 2 | $ 3,200,000 | $ 4,500,000 |
| Joaquín Sorolla y Bastida | 1 | $ 3,000,000 | $ 4,000,000 |
| Paul Gauguin | 1 | $ 3,000,000 | $ 4,000,000 |
| HENRI MATISSE | 1 | $ 2,500,000 | $ 3,500,000 |
| Giorgio Morandi | 4 | $ 2,450,000 | $ 3,450,000 |
| Eugène Boudin | 1 | $ 1,800,000 | $ 2,400,000 |
| Lyonel Feininger | 1 | $ 1,500,000 | $ 2,000,000 |
| Camille Pissarro | 1 | $ 1,250,000 | $ 1,750,000 |
| Egon Schiele | 1 | $ 1,200,000 | $ 1,600,000 |
| Claude Monet | 1 | $ 1,000,000 | $ 1,500,000 |
| Berthe Morisot | 1 | $ 900,000 | $ 1,200,000 |
| Heinrich Campendonk | 1 | $ 700,000 | $ 1,000,000 |
| Paul Klee | 1 | $ 700,000 | $ 900,000 |
| Victor Brauner | 1 | $ 700,000 | $ 1,000,000 |
| Georges Valmier | 1 | $ 500,000 | $ 700,000 |
| Julio González | 1 | $ 500,000 | $ 700,000 |
| Total | 53 | $ 206,850,000 | $284,050,000 |
