Archive for Art Market

Sotheby’s Contemporary Evening

April 30, 2008 at 1:42 am · Filed under Art, Art Market, Auctions, Collecting Art, Uncategorized ·Tagged ,

We’re getting close to the major art auctions in NY and a lot of people are paying attention. Last week we analyzed Sotheby’s upcoming Impressionist and Modern Evening Sale scheduled for next Thursday, May 7. Overall the sale has potential to beat last year’s May Impressionist and Modern Evening sale. If that happens, wait for the frenzy to continue with the Contemporary Evening Sale on May 14. After looking at the Sotheby’s catalogue, I’m pretty excited about it. It should set a lot of records. Below is a quick look at the auction.

This year’s Sotheby’s Contemporary Evening Sale will have 83 lots with a low estimate of $186,850,000 and a high estimate of $256,860,000. There are two additional lots whose estimates were not released, a Francis Bacon triptych and a signature Mark Rothko canvas. Last year, Sotheby’s sold a comparable Rothko for $72,840,000 and they sold an outstanding Bacon for $52,680,000. The Bacon on the block this year is superior to the one at auction last year and should easily surpass the 2007 figure. Look for this sale to potentially top $315.0M – $350.0M.

The upcoming auction has an even distribution of artists ranging from Hans Hoffmann to Banksy. In fact there are 42 artists represented by two or fewer lots. Works by artists who have been more popular in recent years are still plentiful though. There is a variety of works by Hirst, Koons, Richter, Klein, Rauschenberg, Judd and Prince. And Warhol is still the most represented with eight works for auction. Below is a listing of the number of lots and estimates for each artist.

 

Artist Lots Low Estimate High Estimate
Andy Warhol, 1928-1987 8 $28,700,000 $39,800,000
Robert Rauschenberg, b. 1925 3 $13,500,000 $19,700,000
Yves Klein, 1928-1962 3 $13,000,000 $18,000,000
Gerhard Richter, b. 1932 3 $10,400,000 $14,800,000
Jean-Michel Basquiat, 1960-1988 2 $10,000,000 $13,500,000
Joan Mitchell, 1925-1992 2 $9,500,000 $13,000,000
Roy Lichtenstein, 1923-1997 2 $9,000,000 $12,000,000
Jeff Koons, b. 1955 4 $8,800,000 $11,200,000
Donald Judd, 1928-1994 3 $7,750,000 $10,750,000
Tom Wesselmann, 1931-2004  1 $6,000,000 $8,000,000
Richard Prince, b. 1949 3 $5,800,000 $7,700,000
Frank Stella, b. 1936 2 $5,000,000 $7,000,000
Georg Baselitz, b. 1938 2 $5,300,000 $6,700,000
Piero Manzoni, 1933-1963 1 $4,500,000 $6,500,000
Damien Hirst, b. 1965 3 $3,600,000 $5,000,000
Takashi Murakami, B. 1962 1 $3,000,000 $4,000,000
Agnes Martin, 1912-2004 1 $2,500,000 $3,500,000
Carl Andre, b. 1935 1 $2,500,000 $3,500,000
Robert Indiana, 1928 1 $2,500,000 $3,500,000
Brice Marden, b. 1938 1 $2,000,000 $3,000,000
Ellsworth Kelly, b. 1923 1 $2,000,000 $3,000,000
Hans Hofmann, 1880-1966 1 $2,000,000 $3,000,000
Claes Oldenburg, b. 1929 2 $2,100,000 $2,800,000
Robert Smithson, 1938-1973 2 $2,100,000 $2,800,000
Lee Krasner, 1908-1984 1 $1,800,000 $2,500,000
Alexander Calder, 1898-1976 1 $1,500,000 $2,000,000
Cy Twombly, b. 1928 1 $1,500,000 $2,000,000
Jean Dubuffet, 1901-1985 1 $1,500,000 $2,000,000
John Chamberlain, b. 1927 1 $1,500,000 $2,000,000
Philip Guston, 1913-1980 1 $1,500,000 $2,000,000
Yue Minjun, B. 1962 1 $1,400,000 $1,800,000
Dan Flavin, 1933-1996 2 $1,300,000 $1,700,000
Sol LeWitt, 1928 2007 2 $1,200,000 $1,600,000
Keith Haring, 1958-1990 1 $1,300,000 $1,600,000
Sigmar Polke, b. 1941 1 $1,000,000 $1,500,000
Yoshitomo Nara, b. 1959 1 $1,000,000 $1,500,000
Bruce Nauman, b. 1941 1 $800,000 $1,200,000
Joseph Beuys 1 $750,000 $950,000
Erik Bulatov, B. 1933 1 $700,000 $900,000
Joseph Cornell, 1903-1972 1 $650,000 $850,000
Banksy, b. 1975 1 $600,000 $800,000
David Hammons, b.1943 1 $600,000 $800,000
Jeff Wall, b. 1946 1 $600,000 $800,000
Richard Artschwager, b. 1923 1 $600,000 $800,000
Robert Mangold, b. 1937 1 $600,000 $800,000
Jean Arp 1 $500,000 $700,000
Subodh Gupta, b. 1964 1 $500,000 $700,000
Mike Kelley, b. 1954 1 $450,000 $650,000
Matthew Barney, b. 1967  1 $400,000 $600,000
Christo, b.1935 1 $400,000 $500,000
Richard Tuttle, b. 1941 1 $350,000 $450,000
George Segal, 1924-2000 1 $300,000 $400,000
Francis Bacon, 1909-1992  1 Upon Request Upon Request
Mark Rothko, 1903-1970 1 Upon Request Upon Request
Total 85 $186,850,000 $256,850,000

 

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The Russian Art Rush

April 29, 2008 at 2:42 am · Filed under Art, Art Market, Auctions, Collecting Art ·Tagged , , ,

For the past few years analysts have been commenting that “emerging economies” have been fueling the rapid increase of the art market. The three economies that have had the biggest effect on the market are Russia, China and India and they have had the biggest effect on Russian, Chinese and Indian art. For anyone who still wants more detail on how exactly this is happening, read Sotheby’s new Art Market Review on Russian art.

Simply put, Russia (or China or India) have experienced a huge increase in personal wealth. The new political climate in Russia has allowed for more exploration of commodities like oil and the increased international trade has resulted in several very wealthy individuals in the former communist region. (Or course there is still a great deal of inequality in the region, but as it affects the art market, we will only talk about the wealthy classes.) Now that there are several new multi-millionaires in Russia, those moguls are showing major interest in the art of their country from nineteenth-century landscapes to Soviet era conceptula works. According to Sotheby’s analysis, Russian buyers accounted for 31% of the lots sold and 32% of the total sales volume.

Other strong economies such as Switzerland, Ukraine and UK showed interest in Russian art, but the United States bidders fell short when the hammer fell. Americans definitely showed interest with 42% of the bidders coming from the US, but the weakened economy appears to be keeping Americans from snapping up the premium works. The total sales volume driven by Americans was only 18%.

So as we gear up for an interesting year in the art market, there will definitely be bright spots. Look to the Russian, Chinese and Indian auctions to set new records as these economies and their patriotism continues to drive prices. And look for some key works to be snatched away from US Collections as the dollar continues to slide on the global economic stage.

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Why the 2008 Art Market won’t Crash

April 16, 2008 at 10:28 pm · Filed under Art, Art Market, Auctions, Collecting Art ·Tagged , ,

I’ve been researching the art market for an article I’m writing and I have to be honest, I wasn’t too optimistic about 2008 when I started.  Not that I’m jumping with excitement now, but at least I don’t think we’re in for the big correction (ie CRASH) that a lot of people have been talking about.  Here are a few things I’ve come across that changed my mind and there are a few topics that scare me about the market’s potential in 2009 and 2010.

The global economy is strong. Yes, the US sucks right now. Our brokerage houses are falling apart, oil prices are crippling the airline industry, subprime lending has killed the housing market, our currency is in freefall.  But take a look oversees. The European Union is managing to stay fairly strong and more importantly there are a lot of economies that are waking up like Russia, China and India.  Wonder why art from these countries has been making a strong run lately? It’s partly because American and European collectors have been hungry for new art, but a large part of the dramatic run-up has come from local collectors buying art from their countries. The new wealthy Indian elite are collecting artists like Subodh Gupta who have made a huge impact on the interantional art scene and were prominent at the Venice Biennial. Nicholas Forrest points to the emergence of Indonesia in the art market as well.

And judging by the list of works available for the May sales, we’ll probably see a slight reduction in the number of lots offered this year as collectors get nervous about price corrections. You still can’t beat the law of supply and demand.  Less supply with increased demand equals higher prices.  We’ll see how things play out in three weeks.

What does make me nervous though is the trend for institutional investors to move money from other investments into the art market.  According to Artprice, the average price per lot in 2007 increased 18% and the overall sales volume increased 43%.  Those are amazing numbers for brokers who have been seeing the market rise and fall (mostly fall) over the past eight months. What happens when the stock market corrects itself? The brokers will dump a lot of their stakes in art and put the money back into stocks. The increased supply is going to have a huge effect on the art market. Fortunately that’s not likely to happen this year, but look out in 2009.

So overall think of this year’s art market like last year’s housing market. There’s a lot of talk about correction, but it will tread water until there is another change in the economy. The last big correction we saw happened about two years after the last US recession. If we use that as a benchmark, 2010 is looking grim.

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